Will Ukraine survive a third year of war?

Sam Hawley: As the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches, Vladimir Putin has had his first major victory on the battlefield in months, with Russian soldiers capturing the city of Avdiivka. So as the war enters its third year, is there really a chance Ukraine could still win, with the United States Congress holding up a multi-billion dollar aid package? Today we speak to a Ukrainian woman in Kyiv about what life looks like now, and a military analyst on what to expect next. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily.

Oleksandra Povoroznyk: My name is Oleksandra Povorosnyk. I'm a journalist, a film critic in a previous life, but now I think I'm mostly right about the topic of the invasion and the things that have been going on since that happened.

Sam Hawley: And you're living in Kiev?

Oleksandra Povoroznyk: Yes, yes. And I've been living in Kyiv all my life and still am here. Yes.

Sam Hawley: Two years since the war began. I mean, that might be quite hard to fathom that it's been so long. What is life like in Kyiv? What's everyday life like? Just paint a picture for me, because it'd be great to understand that.

Oleksandra Povoroznyk: I think it's surreal. And, you know, obviously all of Ukraine is still quite dangerous. There are safer cities, there are safe-ish cities. There are, you know, definitely, definitely not safe cities. So nowhere is truly safe. The thing is that, you know, even while a war is going on, you do need to keep yourself sane and also keep the economy afloat. So I think, you know, daily life looks surreal in the way that, you know, you may wake up at 6 a.m. to explosions and, you know, your entire apartment building shaking. And you might be convinced that, you know, this is the morning when you're going to die. And, you know, you take shelter in your bathroom. And then, you know, once it stops, you might have, you know, a meeting at 9 o'clock. And everybody else in that meeting, you know, was also woken up by explosions at 6 a.m. But, you know, by 9, they're all, you know, awake and drinking coffee and joking about work because, you know, these explosions and the air raid alerts, they've all sort of become part of the routine. And, you know, I think there's a lot of sort of black humor because of that. And it's abnormal, but it is a coping mechanism.

Sam Hawley: Yes, of course. It must be even more difficult because you do have children and your children are growing up with this around them.

Oleksandra Povoroznyk: Yeah, honestly, I was quite naive because when the full scale invasion started, my kid, he was little over one years old. And I just, I had this sort of very naive thought that, you know, that maybe the war would be over before he would be old enough to really sort of understand what's going on. But now he's, you know, he'll be four this autumn. So now, you know, we have to deal with reading picture books about the war and things like that. So it is surreal. And, you know, you do worry, obviously, about being unable to protect kids. So yeah, as a mother, there are a lot of conflicting emotions.

Sam Hawley: Tell me, what are your hopes for the year ahead, which of course is the third year of this war?

Oleksandra Povoroznyk: I think in a way last year when we all sort of thought about the future, it seemed a little bit more hopeful than it does now. Right now with everything that's going on in the world and, you know, everything especially that's going on in the US, it is very unpleasant to sort of have to rely on another country. There are a lot of reports from the front lines about, you know, there not being enough ammunition and things like that. It is incredibly difficult and incredibly worrying. It does feel like a lot of the world has sort of lost interest. But I do know that Ukrainians will keep fighting. And I think the question now is, you know, if we're going to do it with sort of support from the outside world and fewer losses or we'll have to do it with less support and more losses. I know that the year ahead will probably be very difficult. But I just hope that the world doesn't give up on us.

Eugene Rumer: I'm Eugene Rumer. I'm the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which is a major think tank in Washington, I believe the oldest US international affairs think tank. And, you know, I've been working on things Russian for a long, long time.

Sam Hawley: Eugene, we've been speaking to Oleksandra. She's a Kyiv resident. She's really worried about the year ahead because I guess people in Ukraine have this feeling that international support is waning. But bigger than that is concern over American funding. And I want to talk to you about that in a moment, about what might happen this year in terms of funding for the war in Ukraine. But first, take me to Ukraine to give me a sense of where the war is up to. Because this week, the Russians scored a major victory in Avdiivka.

News clip: Trapped and under Russian fire. Ukrainian soldiers battling to hold their ground, outgunned 10 to one. Exhausted and battle fatigued, these Ukrainian troops filmed themselves leaving Avdiivka.

Sam Hawley: Tell me about that and where that is.

Eugene Rumer: Avdiivka in itself is not a major city. It's not far from Donetsk. It's not far from Donetsk, which is a major city. And from what I understand, it just makes Russian positions around Donetsk more manageable, more easily defensible from future attempts by Ukrainians to recapture the city or conversely to launch new offensive operations deeper into sovereign Ukrainian territory. My reading of the tea leaves based on what we know so far is that it's almost more of a psychological victory for Russia than it is something that is an actual victory on the ground. In terms of square kilometers, in terms of the movement of the line of contact, it doesn't appear to be a major breakthrough. But in terms of Putin having a deliverable, by the time he is gloriously re-elected next month and the Russian military claiming to have achieved a major victory, yes, it is significant.

Sam Hawley: There are fears that hundreds of Ukrainian troops are missing, that they may have been taken by the Russians.

Eugene Rumer: Yes, I've seen those reports. Still unconfirmed that the Ukrainian retreat from the positions was not as orderly as desired, let's put it this way, and that there may be some POWs who were a lot of Ukrainian soldiers killed. So again, that's a very unfortunate situation. Does it change the big picture? Not in my view. In the year that has passed since the first anniversary of the war, the line of contact has pretty much remained where it is. So the Russians have not achieved a whole lot, and the Ukrainians have not achieved a whole lot with their counter-offensive. The main action, as I think everybody understands now, is really in Washington. And the question is whether or not the United States will be able to deliver the assistance that it has to deliver to Ukraine.

News clip: A $60 billion aid package from the United States has stalled in the Congress, with many Trump allies opposed to further Ukraine assistance. Mr Zelenskyy says he's ready to meet the Republican frontrunner to show him first-hand why it's needed.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Keeping Ukraine in the artificial deficit of weapons, particularly in deficit of artillery and long-range capabilities allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war.

Eugene Rumer: And your interlocutor in Kyiv, Oleksandra, I think she's right to worry because, I hate to kind of confirm that, I think the outlook for continued U.S. assistance is not great. And the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, so far is refusing to move this package of legislation forward.

Mike Johnson: The Republican-led House will not be jammed or forced into passing a foreign aid bill that was opposed by most Republican senators and does nothing to secure our own border.

Eugene Rumer: It's inexplicable, but there is a hardcore, I wouldn't even call them conservative, they're isolationist, they're against spending any money on foreign assistance. Ultimately, it all comes down to the will of one man, by the name of Donald J. Trump.

Sam Hawley: What do you think Ukraine's strategy is now for the year ahead? Does it have a strategy or is it just holding on?

Eugene Rumer: Well, it soundsWell, it like they have transitioned. Their new commander, General Syrskyi, just gave an interview and it sounds like they are switching to a strategy of strategic defense, fortifying, improving their defensive lines. Defensive operations inherently are less demanding in terms of manpower, in terms of material that's required. So their transition to a strategy will require less of them in terms of these resources.

Sam Hawley: Eugene, I guess a big question, and I'm not sure if you can answer it, is, is there a chance that Ukraine could still win this war? And when and how will it end?

Eugene Rumer: I think, well, youI think, well, know, what I think doesn't matter, but, you know, yes, Ukraine has a path to victory, but that path depends on the West being willing to support, in every possible way, Ukraine in its pursuit of that victory. And that victory, you know, disappointing as it may sound to our Ukrainian friends, may not look like a complete restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty immediately. And then, you know, the question is really, how do we define, how does Ukraine define its victory? Is it in terms of square kilometers that are reclaimed from under Russian occupation? Or is it in, you know, the country becoming much more closely integrated with Europe, making progress on its path toward membership in the European Union and ultimately NATO? You know, Ukraine becoming a prosperous, democratic, stable country that is integrated in Western institutions, political, economic and security institutions.

Sam Hawley: And how much longer will this go on?

Eugene Rumer: It can go on for a long time. This standoff with Russia, unfortunately, will be a long-term enterprise. We cannot bet on Vladimir Putin departing anytime soon, or, frankly, on his successor necessarily changing things dramatically.

Sam Hawley: Eugene Rumer is Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. Oleksandra Povorosnyk is a Kyiv resident and journalist. As you would have seen, the leading Russian opposition figure, Alexei Navalny, died in a Russian prison last week. We covered the fallout from his death on Tuesday. Look for Can Anyone Take on Putin and Survive? This episode was produced by Bridget Fitzgerald and Nell Whitehead. Audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.